{"id":18141,"date":"2024-04-18T11:18:55","date_gmt":"2024-04-18T11:18:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/soicau5061.minhngocxoso.com\/?p=18141"},"modified":"2024-04-18T11:18:55","modified_gmt":"2024-04-18T11:18:55","slug":"cach-tinh-xac-suat-de-du-doan-lo-de-chinh-xac-nhat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dudoansode.com\/cach-tinh-xac-suat-de-du-doan-lo-de-chinh-xac-nhat\/","title":{"rendered":"c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u1ea5t"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
B\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1eafc m\u1eafc kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng b\u1ea1n tr\u00fang s\u1ed1 m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n ch\u01a1i kh\u00f4ng? Bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh s\u1ebd gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n XSMB chu\u1ea9n x\u00e1c h\u01a1n. C\u00f9ng t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u ngay t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tr\u00fang th\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n b\u1ea1n ch\u01a1i m\u00e0 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i vi\u1ebft d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y nh\u00e9:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1 \u2013 (X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u1ea1ch s\u1ed1 l\u00f4) = 1 \u2013 0,99^27 ( 27 l\u1ea7n quay s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1u t\u1ea1ch) =23,7657%<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea1n tr\u00fang s\u1ed1 l\u00f4 b\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 tr\u00fang bao nhi\u00eau con.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
D\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n XSMB th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 hai con = 0,98^27 = 57,957%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t con trong c\u1eb7p xi\u00ean v\u1ec1 con th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t ho\u1eb7c con th\u1ee9 2 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
V\u1ec1 1 con = 2 * x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00fang 1 l\u00f4 * x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng tr\u00fang s\u1ed1 l\u00f4 = 2 * 23,7657% * 0,99^27 =36,238%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng tr\u00fang xi\u00ean 2 = X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 2 s\u1ed1 + x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 1 s\u1ed1 = 57,957% + 36,238% = 94,195%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 2<\/strong> = 100% \u2013 X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng tr\u00fang xi\u00ean 2= 100 \u2013 94,195% = 5,8%<\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh theo xi\u00ean 2 tr\u00ean nh\u01b0ng x\u1ea3y ra nhi\u1ec1u t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng h\u01a1n. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3:<\/p>\n\n\n\n X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng tr\u00fang xi\u00ean 3 = X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 3 con + x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 1 con + x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 2 con = 0,97^27 + 3 * 23,7675% * 0,98^27 + 3 * 5,8% * 0,99^27 = 98,527%<\/p>\n\n\n\n T\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 3<\/strong> = 100% \u2013 98,527% = 1,473%<\/p>\n\n\n\n Qua nh\u1eefng t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 b\u00ean tr\u00ean, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ec3 chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 d\u1ec5. B\u1edfi v\u1eady b\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng kinh nghi\u1ec7m, k\u0129 n\u0103ng soi c\u1ea7u l\u00f4 \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u r\u1ee7i ro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n